- AIDS Epidemic model
The model helps to answer several key questions, in particular:
- How much money is needed to achieve the goals of the strategic plan?
- What goals can be achieved with the help of available resources?
- How different schemas of resources’ distribution affect the achievement of program objectives?
Goals link budget items with the level of service coverage, changes in behavior, preventing of new HIV-infection cases. The model works with budget items concerns main types of prevention (for example, targeted preventive programs among groups of high risk, HIV T&C, special school programs, condom distribution), care and treatment (for example, palliative help, treatment opportunistic infections), support (for example, orphans) and program management (for example, policy, advocacy, administration). The model links the level of preventive measures with changes in behavior coverage (practice of condom use, STI treatment, number of sex partners, and age of sexual debut) though matrix of influence based on results of 200 studies of preventive interventions effectiveness. The effect of preventive programs is valuable in implementation terms of high-quality care and treatment programs, and also in supportive political environment. The model of HIV transition among population calculates how changes in behavior reduce the number of new infections.
System of policy modeling «Spectrum» consolidates a number of models to an integrated package that consists of 7 components:
- Demography(DemProdj) –The program intended to prepare the population projections based on current number of population,fertility levels, mortality and migration for individual countries or regions.
- Family planning(FamPlan) –The program intended to predict the needs in family planningto achieve national goals and meet the intentions of couples in fertility.
- Benefit-cost –The program intended to compare the costs of implementing programs in the field of family planning with benefits that were obtained during the implementation of these programs.
- AIDS(AIDS Impact Model -Ministry of Internal Affairs) –The program intended to predict consequences of AIDSincluding the total number of HIV-infected individuals, AIDS deaths, people in need of treatment, orphansand so on.
- Social-economic consequences for rapid growth of high fertility and population (RAPID) –The program intended to predict social and economic consequences for rapid growth of high fertility and population for such sectors as labor resources, education, health care, urbanization and agriculture.
- Reproductive health of adolescents(Newgen) –The program intended to examine the impact of policies and programs on adolescent reproductive health including pregnancy, HIV and other FSI.
- Prevention of HIV transition from mother to child –The program intended to examine costs and benefits of different programs on PMTCT to prevent vertical transmission of HIV.
Spectrum is used by most countries to estimate the numbers of people living with HIV on national level.
AIDS Epidemic model is a tool that can be used to predict tendencies for different types of concentrated epidemics. Moreover, recently software developers have done a considerable work on improving this model that makes using AEM as alternative/supplementary tool in Ukraine quite probable.
The method of modeling is based on dynamic changes in behavioral characteristics of representatives of vulnerable groups (frequency of sexual intercourse, its protection and proportional calculation of probable cases of infection number based on HIV transition coefficients) with some adjustments to the data on the HIV prevalence among this group. Using AEM allows us to build predictions of epidemics development for the period up to 2050, but it should be noted that the most accurate prognoses can be based only on the period up to 10-15 years.